Avian Flu in Mammals? What the Data Tells Us About Emerging Risks
- Oliver Sanchez
- Mar 15
- 3 min read
Recently, the USDA released data on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Mammals. Our team at Extrasense sorted through the data and found some potentially alarming trends. (you can look at the raw data here: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/mammals)
What started as a virus contained to birds is no longer just a poultry industry problem, it’s now reaching household pets, marine mammals, and even urban rodents.
As we dug deeper into the numbers, we saw a story unfold, one of shifting transmission dynamics, environmental spillover, and the increasing risk of a broader outbreak. The data didn’t just show numbers; it revealed an unsettling reality. HPAI is making unexpected jumps across species.
Let’s break it down.
1. Where is HPAI Showing Up? The Geographic Hotspots
We expected detections in rural farm areas where poultry operations dominate, but what stood out was the emergence of hotspots in unexpected places.
📍 Roosevelt County, New Mexico: 76 detections, making it the leading outbreak zone. Why? Agricultural intersections, wildlife corridors, or something else?
📍 Clackamas County, Oregon & Weld County, Colorado: Elevated detections despite not being poultry-dense areas.
📍 Mason County, Washington: A coastal region where we see HPAI reaching marine mammals, raising the question of oceanic spread.
🟢 What this means: Disease monitoring isn’t just for poultry farms. We need broader surveillance programs, including wildlife crossings and urban settings.
2. It’s Not Just Birds Anymore—Who Else is Getting Infected?
The biggest shock in the dataset? Rodents and household pets are showing up as infected hosts.
🐀 House Mice & Urban Rodents: Traditionally, we think of rats and mice as “pests,” but this data suggests they could be playing a much bigger role in disease spread.
🐱 Domestic Cats: The numbers don’t lie—cats are getting infected, likely from contact with infected birds or rodents. This raises serious concerns for pet owners in outbreak zones.
🦭 Marine Mammals: Harbor seals and sea lions appearing in the data tell us HPAI isn’t staying on land. It’s moving into marine ecosystems—potentially through bird carcasses or contaminated waters.
🟢 What this means: This isn’t just an agricultural issue anymore. Cities, households, and even coastal communities should be paying attention.
3. The Dominant Strain? H5N1 Leads the Pack
If there’s one strain that stands out in the data, it’s H5N1. This strain has been responsible for major avian outbreaks, but seeing it dominate in mammals could mean it’s highly adaptable.
Why is H5N1 so persistent? Because it’s proving highly transmissible across species.
The data suggests rodents and small mammals could be amplifiers, not just incidental hosts.
🟢 What this means: The world is watching for signs of mammal-to-mammal transmission. If this virus evolves to spread efficiently between mammals, we could be looking at something far bigger.
4. The Timing Matters: Predicting the Next Wave
When we mapped out monthly trends in detections, an unmistakable pattern emerged:
Spring and Fall spikes: These periods align with migratory bird seasons, reinforcing the link between avian carriers and spillover events.
Summer surges: Rodents become more active in warm months—could this be fueling seasonal transmission?
🟢 What this means: If we can predict seasonal risks, we can develop proactive containment strategies before the next wave hits.
What We Can Do Next: A Call to Action
At Extrasense, we specialize in real-time monitoring of pests and potential disease vectors. The data tells us one thing: the way we track, predict, and prevent outbreaks needs to evolve.
Urban disease surveillance needs to include rodents and other non-traditional hosts.
Smart detection systems can pinpoint new hotspots before they escalate.
Cross-sector collaboration between agriculture, public health, and pest monitoring is essential to staying ahead of zoonotic threats.
📩 We’d love to connect with researchers, city planners, and disease prevention experts to discuss innovative ways to improve biosecurity. Let’s make sure we’re ready for whatever comes next.
Oliver Sanchez
CEO @ Extrasense
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